Talking Politics

The Democratic National Committee is given Senator Hilary Clinton may decide to give millions of the disputed votes from Michigan and Florida to Clinton this Saturday. Of course whether or not this will truly affect the outcome of the presidential nomination has not yet been determined.

Clinton’s campaign stated that the her and Senator Barack Obama will not have enough pledged delegates to be able to claim the party’s nomination when the Democrats convene for their convention in August. Now, for Clinton, it’s about winning the remaining uncommitted superdelegates’ faith in her.

To be sure, Clinton can use whatever help she can get from Saturday’s meeting. The DNC’s rules and bylaws committee is scheduled to meet at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time to hear arguments from both Florida and Michigan. At stake: 368 delegates and superdelegates from those contests. Clinton’s currently trailing Obama in the delegate count, with 1,782 to Obama’s 1,982. She’s leading Obama in Puerto Rico in polls for its Saturday race, but she lags in the other two, South Dakota and Montana, whose June 3 contests mark the end of the Democratic primary season.

All indications are, though, that the Saturday meeting won’t be easily sorted out. For starters, Obama wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan, although fully 40% of the Democrats casting ballots in that primary voted “uncommitted,” leading to speculation that a big percentage of those votes would have gone to Obama.
“I think people are going to find it difficult to accept results from a state where only one candidate was on the ballot,” says Margie Omero of Momentum Analysis, a Democratic consultancy.

Moreover, an Associated Press report Wednesday cited a DNC staff analysis saying that seating half of the states’ delegates is “as far as it legally can” go. The Clinton campaign disputes that. “They have the full power to seat both delegations with all delegates and with full votes,” said Harold Ickes, a senior advisor to Clinton, on Friday. Obama is willing to work out a compromise that would give Clinton a net gain in delegates over Obama from the two states. “We’re willing to give some delegates, which I don’t think should be sneezed at,” Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said Wednesday.

But Plouffe also said that Obama eventually will wind up as the nominee. Clinton is now banking on the good offices of the 200 or so remaining undecided superdelegates. On Wednesday, her campaign sent out a letter to those party insiders, asking them to vote for her. In it, Clinton argues she’s winning the popular vote, has the backing of a broad coalition of supporters and millions of newly registered Democrats.
“I believe I am best prepared to lead this country as president,” Clinton wrote, “and best prepared to put together a broad coalition of voters to break the lock Republicans have had on the electoral map and beat Sen. McCain in November.”

The votes in Florida and Michigan, says Clinton, “represent the popular will,” no matter what the DNC decides on Saturday. Clinton is betting that, when the last primaries are over on June 3, she’ll be the one with the most popular votes. It’s then, she says, that the superdelegates will face a choice between voting for the candidate with the most pledged delegates and the candidate with more popular votes.

Of course, Obama believes that he’ll be ahead on Tuesday, after the votes from South Dakota and Montana are counted. Asked by reporters Thursday on his campaign plane if the general-election begins next Tuesday, he replied “Yes.” Obama added that he believed he’d be the winner against Clinton at that point.
Clinton’s supporters aren’t saying what they’ll do if the Saturday meeting doesn’t satisfy them. “That’s a bridge we’ll cross when we come to that particular stream,” said Ickes on Wednesday.

In the meantime, if you thought a decision about Florida and Michigan on Saturday would put the primary season to rest, think again. “She’s going to stay in for at least a couple of weeks,” predicts Omero. Indeed, polls suggest Clinton should: In the latest average of polls as tracked by RealClearPolitics, she’s leading McCain by a percentage point. That’s probably not enough, though, to sway the remaining superdelegates. They’re a stream themselves, and now it’s up to Clinton to build a sturdy bridge.